Australia will see ‘drawn-out’ and ‘above-target inflation’, IMF says
Patrick Commins
The International Monetary Fund says Australia is “projected to see some drawn-out persistence in above-target inflation”, as economists and investors bet the RBA will be forced to hike interest rates this year.
Unemployment figures on Thursday followed by consumer price data the following Wednesday will help determine whether the Reserve Bank will deliver a hike on 3 February.
The IMF’s latest update to its world economic outlook said the global economy has “shaken off” the threat from Trump’s tariff, thanks to an historic surge in tech-related investment in the US and a resilient Chinese economy.
The Washington DC-based organisation did not change its forecasts for Australia’s economic growth, forecasting real GDP would climb by 2.1% in this fiscal year, and 2.2% in the next.
Global growth was upgraded to a projected 3.3% this year, against the October estimate of 3.1%.
The IMF said:
Remarkably, current projections are broadly unchanged from a year earlier, as the global economy shakes off the immediate impact of the tariff shock.
However, the report also said:
This masks underlying fragilities tied to the concentration of investment in the tech sector.
And the negative growth effects of trade disruptions are likely to build up over time.
Key events
Nationals want to ‘lean into the intent’ of banning hate groups
Jordyn Beazley
David Littleproud said his party wants to “lean in to the intent of the banning of hate groups” and “obviously sees the merit in reform to the migration act” after being asked what elements of the Albanese government’s reforms his party wants to support.
The leader of the Nationals appeared on ABC’s 7.30 on Monday night. He said:
We obviously see the merit in reform to [the] migration act that gives more power and the ability for the immigration minister to cancel visas.
We also are sympathetic and want to lean into the intent the banning of hate groups, but we’ve got to make sure there’s no unintended consequences in terms of the legislation, and how that interacts and how far reaching that goes.
Littleproud has said he agrees with sections of the Albanese government’s gun reforms, but maintains that his party will not offer its support, adding that “I don’t believe that guns are the problem.”
He said:
Even the laws that [NSW premier] Chris Minns put in place would not have averted Bondi, because he reduced the ownership of guns in New South Wales to four per person, four guns were used in that tragedy, in that horrific event.
Littleproud said he did not support the government’s proposed buy-back scheme, saying:
If you think in all honesty that by spending $1bn you are going to recover illegal guns … and you’re going to save Australians from future terror attacks, then you are kidding yourself.
Measles alert for western Sydney
Calla Wahlquist
People in NSW have been warned to be on the look out for symptoms of measles after authorities reported a confirmed case in a person who has recently returned from Thailand.
NSW Health said the person was “infectious while visiting locations in greater western Sydney”.
Particularly:
-
Priceline Pharmacy St Clair from 3pm to 4pm on Wednesday 14 January; and
-
Nepean Hospital Emergency Department from 7.50pm on Friday 16 January 2026 to 7.40pm Saturday 17 January
Anyone in either location is advised to be on alert for up to 18 days the above date of potential exposure to symptoms including a fever, runny nose, sore eyes and cough, followed three to four days later by a red, blotchy rash.
A full list of public exposure locations is here.
Nepean Blue Mountains Local Health District Public Health Specialist, Dr Alvis Zibran, said it was a reminder to get the measles vaccine, which is free for certain cohorts.
We want to remind the community to make sure they are up to date with their vaccinations. The measles vaccine can prevent the disease even after exposure, if given early enough.
This should be a reminder for everyone to check that they are protected against measles, which is highly infectious.
Australia will see ‘drawn-out’ and ‘above-target inflation’, IMF says
Patrick Commins
The International Monetary Fund says Australia is “projected to see some drawn-out persistence in above-target inflation”, as economists and investors bet the RBA will be forced to hike interest rates this year.
Unemployment figures on Thursday followed by consumer price data the following Wednesday will help determine whether the Reserve Bank will deliver a hike on 3 February.
The IMF’s latest update to its world economic outlook said the global economy has “shaken off” the threat from Trump’s tariff, thanks to an historic surge in tech-related investment in the US and a resilient Chinese economy.
The Washington DC-based organisation did not change its forecasts for Australia’s economic growth, forecasting real GDP would climb by 2.1% in this fiscal year, and 2.2% in the next.
Global growth was upgraded to a projected 3.3% this year, against the October estimate of 3.1%.
The IMF said:
Remarkably, current projections are broadly unchanged from a year earlier, as the global economy shakes off the immediate impact of the tariff shock.
However, the report also said:
This masks underlying fragilities tied to the concentration of investment in the tech sector.
And the negative growth effects of trade disruptions are likely to build up over time.
Welcome
Calla Wahlquist
Good morning. Krishani Dhanji will be here shortly to guide you through happenings in Canberra, where the Albanese government is hoping to pass proposed hate speech laws introduced in the wake of the Bondi terror attack. As reported earlier, Anthony Albanese split the draft laws into two bills: one focused on gun control, which will pass with the support of the Greens, and the anti-racial vilification provisions, which require Coalition support.
Both Labor and the Liberal party held party room meetings late yesterday in an attempt to hash out a deal, and last night it seemed increasingly likely the bills would pass.
We are also expecting an announcement from NSW police today on whether they will again extend controversial restrictions on public protests – which would mean the ban was in place on 26 January, when a large Invasion Day rally is planned. Senior police last week suggested it was likely they would extend the ban and would “work with” organisers of the Invasion Day rally. Rally organisers have said they’ll march regardless.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund says Australia is projected to see “drawn-out persistence in above-target inflation”, further hinting at a potential rate hike for later in the year.
We’re also keeping an eye on extreme weather across the country, after at least two homes were lost in a bushfire that tore through the Fleurieu peninsula near Adelaide on Sunday.
Let’s crack on.
